Will Iran's energy grid, oil reserves be Israel's targets as it eyes regime change?

The hope is that depriving Iranians of fuel, electricity may drive them to oust rulers

- Jonathan Eyal

LONDON - A few days into the military confrontation, any assessment of the war between Israel and Iran is likely to be tentative.

Yet, even in this early phase, three broad conclusions are emerging.

Iran and Israel are throwing all their arsenals and military capabilities into a fight that both sides consider as crucial to their existence.

As a result, the risk of the operation escalating into much broader destruction remains very real.

And while the casualty toll is rising fast, both sides are keeping their eyes firmly fixed on the only diplomatic actor that matters in this case: the US.

So, although President Donald Trump continues to resort to meaningless slogans — "Make the Middle East Great Again", as he put it in his latest public intervention on Truth Social, his favourite social media platform — what the US leader thinks or does remains crucial not only to Israel, but also to Iran.

Israel's operation is vast. The first wave of attacks on Iran involved more than 200 combat aircraft striking over a hundred targets, including not only nuclear installations, but also the homes of Iran's military leadership, ballistic missile production and storage sites, and air defences.

The current Israeli daily operations are much smaller. Still, they regularly involve around 50 jets in each wave; in total, over 300 various Iranian targets have been hit in the first three days of fighting.

Still, Israel is far from succeeding in eliminating Iran's nuclear programme, which remains the main objective of its operation.

The Natanz nuclear complex sustained severe damage on the first day of strikes. Its above-ground fuel plant, which produced enriched uranium at 60 per cent levels usually required for nuclear weapons, has been destroyed, a fact confirmed by both the International Atomic Energy Agency — the UN nuclear watchdog — and satellite photographs.