Why the Iran-Israel Confrontation Is a Middle East Game Changer

With Tehran's 'ring of fire' strategy smashed, it is now a direct clash between the region's two most powerful militaries.

- Jonathan Eyal

"A week is a long time in politics," a British prime minister once remarked. Nowhere is this truer than in the treacherous politics of the Middle East. Although Israel's military offensive against Iran is not yet a week old, and moves are afoot to stop the fighting, it is already evident that the strategic landscape of the entire region is about to change yet again, in very profound ways.

Regardless of all the talk about the supposedly declining power of the United States and the increasing diplomatic isolation of Israel, the fact is that—like it or not—the two remain the Middle East's most important actors.

This does not mean that Israel and the US can always get their way or are bound to win every confrontation. Nor are the two likely to agree on all they wish to achieve. But it does mean that, for better or worse, the US and Israel continue to be the Middle East's most significant drivers of change. And none of this was apparent—or at least few analysts and global leaders regarded this as obvious—even a week ago.

First, a remarkable if little-noticed detail. The current confrontation with Iran is the first war Israel has fought against another state since 1973. All the wars the Israelis either initiated or fought over the past half-century were against non-state actors, principally the Hamas militant Palestinian organization or the Hezbollah militia based in Lebanon.

In all of them, the hand of Iran was ever-present but never apparent. Now, however, the two most powerful militaries in the region are locked in a confrontation. And this, in itself, represents a massive game changer.

BIG SATAN, LITTLE SATAN