Why child prodigies rarely become elite performers

Hothousing promising youngsters works - but not as well as you might think.

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Novak Djokovic in action at the Australian Open in Melbourne on Jan 19. His illustrious career fits a common idea of human excellence: A child prodigy, schooled intensively in his early years, goes on to conquer his chosen field. But a paper published in Science concludes that the very best performers, in all sorts of fields beyond just sports, tend to follow a rather different path. PHOTO: EPA

(EPA)

Novak Djokovic in action at the Australian Open in Melbourne on Jan 19. His illustrious career fits a common idea of human excellence: A child prodigy, schooled intensively in his early years, goes on to conquer his chosen field. But a paper published in Science concludes that the very best performers, in all sorts of fields beyond just sports, tend to follow a rather different path.

Novak Djokovic first picked up a tennis racket when he was four years old. At the age of 12, he left his native Serbia for a tennis academy in Germany. He won his first major title - the 2008 Australian Open - when he was 20. Today, he has another 23 majors under his belt, and has spent more time ranked No. 1 in the world than any other player.

Djokovic's illustrious career fits a common idea of human excellence: A child prodigy, schooled intensively in his early years, goes on to conquer his chosen field. But a paper published in Science at the end of 2025 suggests he may be something of an exception, rather than the rule. It concludes that the very best performers, in all sorts of fields beyond just sports, tend to follow a rather different path.