Trump 2.0: Getting US-China ties right despite the odds

The outlook is grim but not entirely hopeless.

- Zhiqun Zhu

Since winning the presidential election, Donald Trump has struck a conciliatory tone towards China. He has said repeatedly that President Xi Jinping is a good friend and invited him to his inauguration on Jan 20. He has also said that together, China and the US can solve all of the world's problems.

However, most observers feel pessimistic about US-China relations in the Trump 2.0 era given his unpredictability and transactional style. Trump's recent friendly gesture towards Mr. Xi is reminiscent of the honeymoon they enjoyed in Trump's first term (2017-2021). In April 2017, Trump and then First Lady Melania Trump hosted President Xi and Madam Peng Liyuan at Mar-a-Lago, and the two couples enjoyed tea at the Forbidden City in November 2017. Yet, the honeymoon ended when Trump launched the trade war with China in January 2018.

A replay of this scenario could happen: A second Trump-Xi honeymoon followed by a relationship in free fall as the US leader, urged by his trade and foreign policy aides who are recklessly anti-China, turns his campaign rhetoric into action, including imposing additional tariffs on Chinese goods.

Is there any hope for this relationship?

The two powers could develop sound and realistic policies to manage their competition successfully if they so decide. It all boils down to a simple choice: cooperation or confrontation.

After years of high tension, some soul-searching in both capitals is needed to improve the relationship. Indeed, many people in both countries and elsewhere have appealed to the two governments to resolve their differences diplomatically and avoid unnecessary conflicts.