Time for Europe to pivot to China? Not so fast

Despite Trump's assault on the transatlantic alliance, it doesn't mean Europeans should be forced to make a binary choice between the US and China.

- Jonathan Eyal

European governments hoped that the Feb 24 commemoration of the third anniversary of the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine would provide an opportunity for an expression of solidarity with the Ukrainian people.

Instead, Europe is now paralysed by an existential debate about its security, as the United States has broken ranks and is now talking to Russia about a settlement of the war in Ukraine, mainly by sacrificing Ukrainian territory and interests.

Of all the dark scenarios contemplated by European governments, none predicted the situation the continent faces today, without sufficient military power to defend itself, deprived of its longstanding American security guarantee, facing a Russia determined to recreate its old sphere of imperial influence.

For security experts and many politicians outside Europe, the answer to this security predicament is straightforward: Europeans should abandon their military ties with the US and go it alone by establishing robust European military structures. They should also make nice to China as a counterbalance to the US.

However, creating a new security structure to replace one that has existed for more than seven decades cannot be done overnight. Expanding Europe's choices by boosting the continent's strategic links to China is neither cost-free nor particularly useful. Addressing Europe's security predicament requires more than just proposing some simplistic, binary ideas.

It's hard to overstate the damage President Donald Trump has inflicted on Europe during his first month in office. His defence officials have told Europe that the continent is no longer a priority. And the President has broken all historic rules by talking directly to Russia about European security without even consulting the Europeans.