The World as a Jungle — Understanding Trump's Foreign Policy

Three big beasts — the US, China and Russia — dominate in their respective hunting grounds.

- Jonathan Eyal

"You don't have the cards right now!" This sentence, uttered with anger and contempt by US President Donald Trump to Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky as the visiting Ukrainian leader was publicly humiliated in front of the world's TV cameras while visiting the White House, is destined to go down in history as one of the more memorable lines of the Trump presidency.

It embodies much of what we know about Mr Trump's foreign policy, one in which the weak must expect to be trampled, with the US not only deciding the terms of the surrender but also taking a cut from the deal, which in Ukraine's case means the surrender of Ukrainian natural mineral deposits to American mining companies.

Yet beyond this cruel but straightforward transactional example of US foreign and security policies lurks a more complex Trumpian world perspective. Although "The Donald" is notorious for his policy zig-zags and impulsive behaviour, the broad brush of his policies has been reasonably consistent.

The real questions now facing both America's allies and rivals are whether Mr Trump's vision will endure as the US starts to grapple with the expected and considerable backlash against his policies and how the US President will fare in about 18 months from now when his administration will face the midterm Congressional elections, and the "lame duck" second part of the Trump presidency which will inevitably come soon thereafter.

America's liberal-leaning media and leading members of the opposition Democratic Party made much of a covert Russian role in the wake of Mr Trump's unexpected win in the 2016 presidential election, including allegations that he is a "Russian plant", a so-called Manchurian Candidate, echoing a 1950s political thriller about an American politician brainwashed by communist spies and pre-programmed to work against his country's interests.