The tragedy of a 50-50 America

The era of Western stability relied on dominant parties, and the US has none.

- Janan Ganesh

Here are two conflicting thoughts as the US election nears. First, Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris is an imperfect candidate who should never have been crowned without challenge. Second, it doesn't matter. Even if the Democrats had nominated a living saint, a Periclean orator, the election in November would still be a toss-up, as it was in 2000, 2004, 2016 and 2020. The other two elections in this century—the victories of former president Barack Obama—weren't blowouts either. There seems to be nothing a party can do to go above 53 percent of votes cast, or much below 46 percent.

No other major democracy in the world is anything like as consistently deadlocked. Nor was the US itself in the last century. Its mutation into a 50-50 country (or really a 30-30-40 one, as four in 10 voters often abstain) has been a civic disaster.

Why? Because there is no incentive to moderate. If you are guaranteed to be competitive in every national election, even if you nominate a twice-impeached felon, why mend your ways? A major party in 21st-century America is never truly out of power. It will tend to have a chamber of Congress, 20-plus governorships and a good chance of the White House next time, almost regardless of its candidate. Throw in a vast and lucrative media ecosystem, which affords politicos a nice life outside office, and there exists little express reason to behave well. When the state underwrites a financial institution, we fret about "moral hazard." Here the electorate is the backstop and the parties are the banks.