S'pore to study how worst-case scenarios affect local sea-level rise projections

Researchers from Singapore will update sea-level rise projections for the Republic and the region by taking into account what are known as "black swan" events.

- Shabana Begum

These refer to events that are less likely to occur — such as irreversible ice sheet collapse — but can impact low-lying countries like Singapore greatly if they do.

This move to update the Republic's projections for sea-level rise — which is estimated to be up to 1.15m by 2100 — comes after a Nanyang Technological University (NTU) study showed that global sea-level rise could be higher than earlier projections if extreme events were considered.

The study, published in December 2024, focused on global projections, and found that the mean sea level around the world could rise by up to 90cm higher than earlier estimates.

Now, the Centre for Climate Research Singapore (CCRS), which is under the Meteorological Service Singapore (MSS), said it will work with NTU to localise the projections for Singapore and the region.

CCRS research scientist Trina Ng, who helped to put together Singapore's projections revealed in early 2024, said the collaboration with NTU will provide an additional set of projections that can be useful for various adaptation planning measures.

"Mean sea level is not uniform across the world. Different parts will vary differently from the global average because of processes such as ocean circulation and local vertical land movement. So if we want the most accurate and robust projections for Singapore, we have to localise it," she said.

There are two ice sheets on the planet — one in Antarctica, and the other in Greenland. If both were to melt completely, they could raise sea levels by 65m.

One possible extreme sea-level event is the collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet — its glaciers and ice shelves sit precariously over the warming ocean, which licks away at the underbelly of the frozen mounds, making the region more unstable.