South Korea: Is it time for a more balanced strategy?

Seoul should pursue its national interest on an issue-by-issue basis without leaning too far to one side or the other amid China-US competition.

- Soon-Ok Shin

The return of President Donald Trump and his trademark erratic unilateralism has cast US credibility into question. Europe and Ukraine are in the crosshairs, blindsided by Washington's re-engagement with Russia. Vice-President J.D. Vance's February Munich Conference speech, putting flesh on the bones of the Trump 2.0 foreign policy, angered many by focusing on "free speech" and "migration" challenges while virtually ignoring defence. Nato allies were appalled by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's White House humiliation. The world order, grounded in a post-1945 liberal internationalism, is in disarray.

The question for South Korea, a key US ally in Asia, is whether it has the wherewithal to protect its interests in this dramatically changing world order. Or is it constrained from pursuing a (grand) strategy to shape its own destiny because of its security dependence on the US, and ultimately have to passively submit to the impulses of great power politics? This raises several other questions for Seoul: What principles should guide the development of an effective national strategy? What role should an increasingly confident "medium size" power seek in addressing challenges in the region and beyond?

My argument is that South Korea should eschew a Cold-War style, "value-driven" diplomacy: this is no longer an appropriate response to the geopolitical contingencies de nos jours (of our time). Instead, it should make more autonomous strategic adjustments in response to a changing international landscape, pursuing its national interest on an issue-by-issue basis without leaning too far to one side or the other in navigating Sino-US competition.