Smaller states can't tell big powers what to do, but they do have agency, says SM Teo

Smaller countries cannot dictate what big powers choose to do, but they do have agency, said Senior Minister Teo Chee Hean, noting that China and the United States seem to have opted to show strength through confrontation rather than cooperation for now.

- Ho Ai Li

"The implications of this choice – to be dance partners or battling gladiators – are seismic," SM Teo, who is also Coordinating Minister for National Security, said on March 28 at the inaugural ThinkChina forum, organised by the eponymous English-language digital magazine which comes under Lianhe Zaobao.

He cited three categories of issues between the two great powers: those that can trigger conflict, such as Taiwan; deep differences such as trade imbalances that should not on their own result in conflict; and issues of the global commons like climate change.

Both sides have declared that they do not seek nor want war with the other, he said, adding that if that is the case, then they should work to manage the first set of issues.

"But if one side or the other, or both, believe that confrontation and conflict is inevitable, then the second and third set of issues are merely bargaining chips to be accumulated in preparation for a conflict," said SM Teo.

Uncertainty over US-China relations as well as global trade has deepened since US President Donald Trump took power in January 2025 and proceeded to impose across-the-board tariffs on imports from China, Canada and Mexico.

On what smaller countries, especially those in the region, can do, SM Teo said the current global uncertainties have added motivation for countries to tie up with one another.

He noted that Singapore has good relations, including free trade agreements (FTAs), with the US and China, and has built a wide network of FTAs with the Gulf Cooperation Council, EU, Britain, the South American trade bloc Mercosur, India, Japan, Australia, New Zealand and the Eurasian Economic Union, which includes Russia, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan.