Reading between the electoral battle lines is as much art as science

Before every general election, there seems to always be dissatisfaction over how the battle lines are drawn.

- Tham Yuen-C

It was no different on March 11 after the Electoral Boundaries Review Committee (EBRC) released its latest recommendations on boundary changes. Within hours of the report being made public, it had provoked reactions from various quarters.

The Workers' Party noted the significant changes to areas where it had been walking the ground for the last few years, while the Progress Singapore Party asked if the committee could have accounted for population shifts without making drastic changes. The angst is understandable.

Judging from past elections, the committee's work can have a significant impact on the upcoming polls.

Past committees have redrawn boundaries, chopped and changed entire constituencies, wiped them off the map, and also created new ones, resulting in more seats in Parliament.

This time around, the EBRC's recommendations, which Prime Minister Lawrence Wong has already accepted, will see boundaries redrawn in 22 out of the current 31 constituencies.

Some constituencies will disappear Bukit Batok, MacPherson, Yuhua, Hong Kah North and Punggol West SMCs while others have been recast comprehensively, such as the current Jurong, West Coast, East Coast and Marine Parade GRCs.

New ones were also formed, like Punggol GRC, among others.

Just five group representation constituencies and four single-member constituencies remain unchanged from the last election.

While these changes may be of little significance to ordinary Singaporeans, for politicians, they can determine whether they will have a seat at the next opening of Parliament.

For one thing, the shifts, whether marginal or major, can change the voter profile and affect an MP's electoral machinery. This means a candidate will have to cultivate the ground all over again, often with a different team and much less time to do so.