Modi will pay a price jor H-IB visa curbs

By adding services to a trade war that Team Modi didn’t see coming, Trump is piling pressure at a time of Al disruption and growing youth unemployment.

- Andy Mukherjee

It’s hard to say what President Donald Trump’s extraordinary attack on immigration will mean for the future of US tech dominance. What’s clearer, however, is the immediate challenge he has created for his friend Narendra Modi — days after wishing him a happy 75th birthday.

Indians account for more than 70 per cent of all H-IB visas. A steep US$100,000 (S$128,000) entry fee, paid by employers, for every worker entering the US under the programme will effectively gut it, forcing large outsourcing companies such as Bengaluru-based Infosys to rethink their business strategy.

What should worry Prime Minister Modi more is how the new tule is being implemented. Introduced as a travel restriction, it had the appearance of an economic sanction, an escalation of the punishment the US leader has meted out to a staunch ally in recent months.

First came a 50 per cent duty on merchandise exports: Washington told New Delhi that its 25 per cent reciprocal tariff was being doubled because its purchases of Russian oil were helping to finance President Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine. Having effectively lost access to its biggest overseas market for textiles, gems and jewellery, shrimp-farming and other labour-intensive industries, India was hoping to soften the blow with a tax cut for domestic consumers, lined up to coincide with this week’s start of the annual Hindu festive season.

Washington’s curbs on white-collar talent have poured cold water on that mitigation strategy, too.