Japan's Right-Wing Sanseito Party Is No Maga

The anti-immigration party is rising in the polls but its popularity may not be sustained.

- Gearoid Reidy

Plenty of contentious issues loom ahead of the July 20 elections in Japan: A shrinking economy, falling real wages, and no trade deal to shield against US President Donald Trump's tariffs.

But the narrative has instead been dominated by a fringe group and its chatter about the nation's growing cohort of foreign residents.

A spike in the polls for the right-wing Sanseito has alarmed mainstream parties, and shifted the debate to its anti-immigration policies. Leader Sohei Kamiya denounces "globalism" and wants fewer overseas workers. The party's "Japanese First" slogan intentionally riffs on Mr. Trump's "America First." It won three seats in last year's Lower House vote and three more in Tokyo's recent assembly election.

But what has really captured attention are the opinion surveys for the July 20 Upper House vote, where Sanseito has polled as high as second place. Given global trends, many are asking if it's Japan's turn to go down the path of right-wing populism.

Such concern is overblown.

This is not the start of something like the Reform UK party, much less Mr. Trump's Maga (Make America Great Again).

The rise of such a movement continues to be very much overstated.

Japan's increasing number of foreign residents is causing some growing pains, mostly due to their prior absence and a surge in ill-mannered tourists.

But both Maga and Reform UK were given room to grow because of decades of mainstream politicians persistently ignoring voters' dissatisfaction with policies that moved jobs abroad and put few checks on immigration. In Japan, such complaints don't really carry water.