Is Ukraine headed for a peace of attrition'?

All eyes will be on the US team at the Munich Security Conference for signs of Trump's plan to end the war.

- Jonathan Eyal

As we have learnt over the past few weeks, trying to predict what US President Donald Trump may do next is a risky business. Still, it is virtually certain that later this week, when European leaders arrive for the Munich Security Conference the continent's top security gathering, held annually in Germany's southern city - the Trump administration will be there to provide the first public indication of how it intends to bring about a halt to the Ukraine war, Europe's bloodiest conflict since World War II.

Governments on both sides of the Atlantic Ocean have been signalling to each other and manoeuvring on this matter ever since Mr Trump won the US election in November 2024, famously promising "to end the war in 24 hours" if he returned to the White House. The US President also recently revealed that he discussed a conclusion to the conflict with Russian President Vladimir Putin, who started it all by invading Ukraine almost precisely three years ago, in February 2022.

Still, Mr Trump declined to reveal the contents of his phone conversations with Mr Putin and refused to say how many times he may have spoken with his Moscow counterpart. Much of this silence will soon be dispelled when a top-heavy US delegation lands in Munich. All eyes will be on US Vice-President J.D. Vance, who leads the delegation, and Lieutenant-General (Ret) Keith Kellogg, the 80-year-old former US military commander appointed by Mr Trump as America's special envoy for Ukraine.

A timetable of sorts has also emerged. Messrs Vance and Kellogg will tell their European partners what the Trump administration proposes to do.