India-Pakistan conflict: Why future clashes will be much harder to contain

Despite a fragile ceasefire, changing norms on targets and the multi-domain nature of warfare are opening new pathways to escalation.

- Farah N. Jan

India and Pakistan have seen the scenario play out before: a terror attack in which Indians are killed leads to a succession of escalatory tit-for-tat measures that put South Asia on the brink of all-out war. And then there is a de-escalation.

The broad contours of that pattern have played out in the most recent crisis, with the latest step being the announcement of a ceasefire on May 10.

But in another important way, the flare-up—which began on April 22 with a deadly attack in Indian-controlled Kashmir, in which 26 people were killed—represents significant departures from the past. It involved direct missile exchanges targeting sites inside both territories and the use of advanced missile systems and drones by the two nuclear rivals for the first time.

As a scholar of nuclear rivalries, especially between India and Pakistan, I have long been concerned that the erosion of international sovereignty norms, diminished US interest and influence in the region, and the stockpiling of advanced military and digital technologies have significantly raised the risk of rapid and uncontrolled escalation in the event of a trigger in South Asia.

These changes have coincided with domestic political shifts in both countries. The pro-Hindu nationalism of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government has heightened communal tensions in the country. Meanwhile, Pakistan's powerful army chief, General Syed Asim Munir, has embraced the "two-nation theory", which holds that Pakistan is a homeland for the subcontinent's Muslims and India for Hindus.

This religious framing was even seen in the naming of the two countries' military operations. For India, it is "Operation Sindoor"—a reference to the red vermilion used by married Hindu women, and a provocative nod to the widows of the Kashmir attack. Pakistan called its counter-operation "Bunyan-un-Marsoos"—an Arabic phrase from the Quran meaning "a solid structure".