Europe talks big on defence spending, but the real amount could be much less

Doubts persist about how fast it can acquire new military capabilities as US pulls back

- Jonathan Eyal

All American presidents since John F. Kennedy have urged their European allies to spend more on their militaries and rely less on US military might.

But what Mr Kennedy and his successors failed to achieve during more than six decades, US President Donald Trump has now accomplished in under 60 days.

At a summit held in the Belgian capital Brussels on March 6, the European Union's heads of state and government agreed on the most significant increase in military spending in their continent's peacetime history.

Facing the consequences of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine and deeply shaken by Mr Trump's determination to conclude a separate US-Russia deal above their heads and without their consultation, the Europeans have finally stepped up to the plate by pledging vast sums of money to their militaries.

According to a plan dubbed "ReArm Europe" presented at the Brussels summit by European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen, her executive body alone will be responsible for "mobilising" around €800 billion (S$1.15 trillion) in extra spending for defence.

"Europe is ready to assume its responsibilities," Dr von der Leyen said.

Individual European states — particularly Germany, the continent's largest economy — have also come forward, vowing to spend almost as much again.

Yet, while the continent's determination to rearm is not in question, serious doubts persist about the sums currently envisaged and the speed with which Europe could acquire new military capabilities.