Could US tariffs imperil the Philippines' plan to buy F-16 fighter jets?

The $7.2 billion programme is a massive component of the nation's defence modernisation plans.

- Mara Cepeda

Philippine Ambassador to the US Jose Manuel Romualdez sounded the alarm in April: The country's US$5.58 billion (S$7.2 billion) deal to buy 20 F-16 fighter jets from Washington - a linchpin of Manila's military modernisation - could be imperilled by President Donald Trump's proposed 17 per cent tariff on Philippine exports and its resulting impact on government coffers.

After all, the US is the Philippines' third-largest trading partner and top export market. As Manila races to strengthen its military amid escalating regional tensions, this warning sent ripples through defence watchers. Could a trade spat really unravel a decades-old security partnership that underpins Manila's defence?

At first glance, the concern is understandable. The Philippines has a lot riding on this arms sale. The F-16 deal is critical to replacing the Philippines' ageing military assets. It is the centrepiece of the Philippine Air Force's long-range capability goals under Horizon 3, the final leg of a three-phase military modernisation plan for the Armed Forces of the Philippines in the next decade.

The Philippine Congress has approved US$35 billion for Horizon 3 over 2023 to 2028, a huge sum for a developing country still balancing defence with urgent social and economic needs.

Even a modest cost hike risks delaying procurement or forcing trade-offs in capability.

And the latest tariff threat isn't speculative. Mr Trump has announced a sweeping set of tariffs, reigniting his trade war playbook. Should these tariffs be applied broadly, they could raise upstream costs across the aviation supply chain - and ultimately be passed on to US defence partners like the Philippines.

But scratch beneath the surface, and the outlook isn't so grim.