China exports set to hit record high before Trump takes office

Economists expect panic-stockpiling by foreign firms amid spectre of trade war

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Economists expect Chinese exports to reach a historic high in 2024, as customers rush to front-load orders given US President-elect Donald Trump's threat of higher tariffs when he takes office in January.

Export growth will accelerate to 7 per cent in the final three months from the same period in 2024, according to the median forecast of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg on Nov 15 to 21.

That is an upgrade from the 5 per cent gain seen in October ahead of the US election, and would push total exports in 2024 to US$3.55 trillion (S$4.79 trillion) - above the previous record in 2022.

"In the next few months, Chinese exports might benefit from panic-stockpiling by foreign companies," said Maybank Investment Banking Group economist Erica Tay. "The spectre of a trade war will probably cause China's policymakers to lean more heavily on pro-consumption stimulus measures next year."