As the Israel-Hamas Ceasefire Holds, What's Next for Gaza?

The Gaza ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas, the radical Palestinian organisation, appears to be holding.

- Jonathan Eyal

BRUSSELS - The Gaza ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas, the radical Palestinian organisation, appears to be holding.

Israel frequently complains about alleged Hamas delays in providing details about the Israeli hostages it plans to release. Still, both sides are observing the provisions of the ceasefire deal. However, obstacles to a more durable settlement in Gaza remain formidable.

Hamas shows no signs of giving up its control of the strip, as the diplomats who negotiated the ceasefire deal envisaged.

And substantial negotiations about alternatives for the administration of the territory have not started.

Minutes after the ceasefire came into effect on Jan. 19, hundreds of armed Hamas fighters wearing balaclavas and sunglasses reappeared throughout Gaza in white pickup trucks, brandishing Kalashnikov assault rifles.

For months, these fighters had mainly stayed underground and emerged from tunnels only to carry out ambush attacks against Israeli forces. But now, along with units of the blue-uniformed Hamas police force, they have reappeared across the entire Palestinian coastal strip, claiming to maintain "security and order".

The purpose of their demonstrative presence is clear - to tell Israel and the world that even after 15 months of a gruelling war that flattened almost the entire Gaza Strip, Hamas remains in control of the Palestinian enclave, just as it has done since 2007.

According to a December 2024 opinion poll conducted by the Arab World for Research and Development, a research outfit based in the Israeli-occupied Palestinian territories, only 5 per cent of Gaza's residents support the Hamas government.