Principles of Potsdam Don't Apply to Ukraine

After a second consecutive night of deadly Russian air attacks—against the capital Kyiv on April 23 and the eastern Ukrainian city of Pavlohrad on April 24—a ceasefire in Ukraine seems as unrealistic as ever.

- Stefan Wolff and Tetyana Malyarenko

With Russian commitment to a deal clearly lacking, the situation is not helped by US President Donald Trump. He can't quite seem to decide who he will ultimately blame if his efforts to agree a ceasefire fall apart.

Before the strikes on Kyiv, Trump blamed Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zelenskky, for holding up a deal by refusing to recognize Crimea as Russian. The following day, he chided Vladimir Putin for the attacks, calling them "not necessary, and very bad timing" and imploring Putin to stop.

The main stumbling block on the path to a ceasefire is what a final peace agreement might look like and what concessions Kyiv—and its European allies—will accept. Ukraine's and Europe's position on this is unequivocal: no recognition of the illegal Russian annexation.

This position is also backed by opinion polls in Ukraine, which indicate only limited support for some, temporary concessions to Russia. The mayor of Kyiv, Vitali Klitschko, also suggested that temporarily giving up territory "can be a solution".

The deal that Trump's envoy Steve Witkoff apparently negotiated over three rounds of talks in Russia was roundly rejected by Ukraine and Britain, France, and Germany, who lead the "coalition of the willing" of countries pledging support for Ukraine.

This prompted Witkoff and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio to pull out of follow-up talks in London on April 24. These ended with a fairly vacuous statement about a commitment to continuing "close coordination and... further talks soon".

And even this now appears as quite a stretch. Coinciding with Witkoff's fourth trip to see Putin on April 25, European and Ukrainian counterproposals were released that reject most of the terms offered by Trump or at least defer their negotiation until after a ceasefire is in place.