US Dollar Tests Key Levels in Rally

Crowded positioning creates 'dollar squeeze' risk.

- WILSON SY

The US dollar's historic plunge - its steepest first-half decline in five decades - may be abating. After tumbling by 10.7 percent through June, the greenback has recovered from its lows. The rally has pushed above the 20-day moving average and now faces a critical test of the 50-day moving average at 98.708. A decisive break of this level could trigger a wave of short covering.

Fifth attempt to break 50-day average

The dollar's year-long slide has been marked by repeated failures at the 50-day moving average. After four unsuccessful attempts to reclaim this key technical barrier, a fifth challenge is now underway.

Technical signals point to a retest of 100, potentially reaching 102 if momentum builds. Supporting the bounce scenario, the monthly chart shows multi-year trendline support in the 97-98 zone. The greenback may have found a floor.