Inflation seen to climb as upside risks linger

Inflation is projected to climb in the coming months as supply-side pressures and the extension of rice import restrictions threaten to push prices higher, which could prompt the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) to keep policy rates unchanged today.

- By KEISHA TA-ASAN

Following the slight uptick in inflation to 1.7 percent in September from 1.5 percent in August, analysts said this may mark the start of a gradual pickup after months of subdued readings, with weather-related disruptions and policy measures posing upside risks toward year end.

HSBC ASEAN economist Aris Dacanay said that while September’s below-consensus figure still falls below the BSP’s two to four percent target range, rice prices would be a key factor to watch in the next few months after the government extended its rice import ban until the end of the year.

“This is a major upside risk to inflation that needs to be monitored,” he said. “But importers have frontloaded their rice orders in anticipation of the ban, leading to ample supply by end-August. If local farmers were able to harvest before Typhoon Nando hit, rice supply may be sufficient to keep prices stable through year end.”