I Was Wrong About the 2024 Election

World view

- JAMES CARVILLE

I thought Kamala Harris would win. I was wrong. While I'm sure we Democrats can argue that the loss wasn't a landslide or take a little solace in our House performance, the most important thing for us now is to face that we were wrong and take action on the prevailing "why."

I've been going over this in my head for the past two months, all the variables, all the what-ifs, all the questions about Joe Biden's re-election decisions and what kind of Democrat or message might have worked against Donald Trump. I keep coming back to the same thing. We lost for one very simple reason: it was, it is and it always will be the economy, stupid. We have to begin 2025 with that truth as our political north star and not get distracted by anything else.

Although the US economy remains the strongest in the world, with GDP soaring and inflation subsiding, the American people did not settle for us being better than the rest or take that as good enough. Mr. Trump, for the first time in his political career, decisively won by seizing a swath of middle-class and low-income voters focused on the economy. Democrats have flat-out lost the economic narrative. The only path to electoral salvation is to take it back. Perception is everything in politics, and a lot of Americans perceive us as out to lunch on the economy - not feeling their pain or caring too much about other things instead.