Building hope, one home at a time: The Expanded 4PH and our national aspirations

The housing shortage in the Philippines has long been a subject of varying estimates, with the commonly cited figure being 6.5 million units. However, this number warrants careful reexamination.

- By HENRY L. YAP, EUAP, FPIEP, EAROPH

The estimate of 6.5 million originated from a study commissioned by the Housing and Urban Development Coordinating Council nearly a decade ago. The study used data from the 2010 Census of Population and Housing (CPH) to project housing needs up to 2016 and additional requirements until 2022.

Unfortunately, the figure has often been misunderstood. In truth, only about two-thirds of the total represented actual housing needs. The remaining portion accounted for acceptable housing that could deteriorate over time due to neglect, natural disasters, and other factors are classified as “reserves for inventory losses.”

Another source of confusion lies in the interchangeable use of the terms housing backlog and housing need. These two terms differ significantly, as housing backlog refers to the shortage of housing units due to unmet needs, while housing need encompasses the backlog and the new, emerging needs. They are often used interchangeably in public discussions, resulting in misleading statistics.

To provide a more accurate picture, the Department of Human Settlements and Urban Development (DHSUD) commissioned the Philippine Statistical Research and Training Institute, the original preparer, in 2023 to update the figures using data from the 2020 CPH, with select assumptions. The updated study revealed that as of December 2022, the backlog stood at approximately 2.2 million units, or just a third of the previously projected figure.

By 2028, the housing needs are projected to reach 3.4 million units. If acceptable housings are reserved for inventory losses, an additional 3.5 million may be added. Consequently, claims of 22 million unit housing needs by 2040 are not supported by current data and are grossly distorted.

THE ECONOMIC DIVIDE: AFFORDABILITY AND AVAILABILITY