Bifurcation

This young year will be a very political one. This happens every three years, given our short electoral cycle.

- ALEX MAGNO

The midterm elections happening in May will be intensely contested. The results will provide a measure of the political support the ruling coalition has. It will also provide a reading of political alignments leading to the crucial presidential elections of 2028.

2024 gave us a foretaste of the intense politicking forthcoming. Driven by centrifugal forces, the UniTeam coalition collapsed. The coalition won the 2022 elections by a landslide and assembled an unprecedented supermajority thereafter. But there is not enough, evidently, to hold this coalition together.

Like Humpty Dumpty, who fell from the wall, this coalition could not be put together again. The rants have happened. The factional lines have been drawn. The antagonisms are simply too deep. The competing political agendas are simply irreconcilable.

All the sparring between the contending factions took its toll. Trust and approval ratings for the two highest officials of the land have eroded beyond repair. The seasonal public opinion surveys are like a barometer forecasting a political storm.

Vice President Sara Duterte's survey ratings are most visible. Over the last two quarters, her trust ratings slipped remarkably across all demographic groups. With the prospect of impeachment proceedings being initiated at the House of Representatives, her ratings are expected to suffer even more.