August inflation seen to decline below 4%

Economists see slower inflation in August, possibly below the four percent target of the central bank, amid stable food prices.

-  KEISHA TA-ASAN

ING regional head of research and chief economist for Asia-Pacific Robert Carnell said inflation likely dropped to 3.3 percent from the ninemonth high of 4.4 percent in July.

“We calculate that overall prices remained flat from last month, with non-rice food prices a slight drag offsetting some increases elsewhere. We don’t expect a repeat of the housing-related increase last month,” he said.

Jun Neri, lead economist at Ayala-led Bank of the Philippine Islands, said inflation likely fell to 3.6 percent in August as key food items declined month on month. But higher transport and energy prices pose upside risks.

Sarah Tan, an economist from Moody’s Analytics, likewise sees inflation settling at 3.6 percent in August amid lower tariff rates for rice, which could have downward pressure on rice prices.

“The impact from Typhoon Carina that struck in July is expected to show up in August’s print in terms of higher prices for agricultural produce like vegetables,” she said.