The global plunge in birthrates – and the propaganda and fear it stokes

Most countries are falling short of the population 'replacement' rate, with long-term consequences for economies and world stability

- writes Fred Harter

The world is experiencing an “unprecedented” fertility crisis, the United Nations said in a landmark report released last week.

So what?

The worry used to be quite the opposite. In 1968, a Stanford biologist called Paul Ehrlich warned of a “population bomb”. His dystopian scenario, conceived during the baby boom, imagined an explosion in numbers that would cause famines and social upheaval as people scrambled for dwindling resources.

But it never went off

Today demographers predict the opposite: a population collapse. Birthrates have been falling for decades, especially in the rich world, and warnings about the consequences are becoming ever more stark. Most countries are now below the “replacement rate” of 2.1 children per woman, where there are more deaths than births.

Mind the drop

Last week Japan announced that its birthrate had fallen to 1.15, the lowest since records began in 1899. The picture is similar throughout the world. From 1960 to 2023 birthrates declined from: 6.77 to 1.83 in Mexico; 2.91 to 1.55 in Norway; 2.72 to 1.53 in the UK; and 6 to 0.81 in South Korea.

Cause célèbre

The issue of falling birthrates is a mantle that has been taken up by far-right leaders. Hungary's Viktor Orbán promotes “traditional family values”. Elon Musk says “civilisation will disappear” unless the trend is reversed. Trump has called himself the “fertility president”. But beyond their rhetoric (and proposed solutions) is a genuine problem.

Behind the numbers