Why is the Indus Water Treaty in abeyance a serious existential threat to Pakistan?

Islamabad will be deprived of crucial data on floor control vital for the system

- BY SANT KUMAR SHARMA

On April 23, 2025, the Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS), which was presided over by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, decided to keep the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) in abeyance. It bears mention here that the word abeyance is not used anywhere in the Treaty text. As such, the Pakistani leaders are correct when they claim that it has no legal backing. Well, this is something they have to now deal with, legal or otherwise, and face the consequences of this decision.

Most Pakistanis term the decision as an existential threat since an agrarian society's dependence on irrigation water is foundational. The possibilities opening up with India's announcement is what worries Pakistan as hell because this is uncharted territory. India has paused bombardments on Pakistani targets, be it military or terrorist camps, but refused to reverse its decision on the IWT.

The first impact the decision had in Pakistan was that Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif conceded defeat before Bilawal Zardari Bhutto on April 29 as he announced stoppage of all work on new Indus canals. This was a stinging slap for Pakistan Army Chief General Asim Munir who had inaugurated this project along with Punjab Chief Minister Maryam Nawaz on February 15, 2025.

Be it scholars, lawyers or politicians, all Pakistanis argue that there is no provision for unilateral abeyance of the Treaty. On this basis, all of them have termed India's action with regard to the Treaty as illegal and lacking the force of law.