Do we feel like the 4th-largest economy?

A senior Indian official has asserted that India has surpassed Japan to become the world's fourth-largest economy - a symbolic milestone that, if true, marks a significant moment in the country's economic journey.

- SHIVANAND PANDIT

The statement came from B.V.R. Subrahmanyam, head of NITI Aayog, the Indian government's public policy think tank. He further predicted that India is on track to overtake Germany and become the third-largest economy globally, trailing only the United States and China, within the next three years. While the announcement has been widely celebrated in Indian media, the excitement may be premature. The claims seem to be based on future projections from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) rather than current, confirmed economic data. Even if India does achieve this ranking soon, it’s essential not to lose sight of the country’s pressing challenges, including entrenched socioeconomic inequalities and widespread developmental disparities.

According to the IMF's World Economic Outlook released in April 2025, India’s GDP for FY25 is projected at $3.91 trillion, while Japan’s GDP for calendar year 2024 is estimated at $4.03 trillion. Based on these figures, India continues to be the world’s fifth-largest economy, for the time being. The IMF anticipates that India will surpass Japan in FY26, with India’s GDP expected to reach $4.187 trillion, narrowly overtaking Japan's projected $4.186 trillion for the calendar year 2025. While a change in global economic rankings seems likely, the IMF data referenced by Subrahmanyam does not yet confirm that India has risen to the fourth position. Since the IMF does not independently gather data but instead uses official figures provided by national governments, with some adjustments, any errors or inaccuracies in those government sources are also present in the IMF's data.