Race to the End of the Earth

The US is hoping that new findings of gargantuan lithium reserves in its mainland will upend the global alternative energy order, in the service of which lithium demand is forecast to reach 1.4 million metric tonnes (mmt) this year.

- Kajal Basu

The battle unfolding so far in the lithium rechargeable battery market is between the US and China. Two years ago, at 6.8 mmt, China had 73.5 percent more lithium than the US. But this was upended by the announcement by the US Geological Survey (USGS) late last year of the Smackover Formation in Arkansas, estimated to hold 5-19 mmt, nine times the global lithium demand until 2030. Then followed the announcement of a deposit of 20-40 mmt in the McDermitt Caldera at the Oregon-Nevada border. A near-simultaneous report came in of 18 mmt beneath the Salton Sea, California's largest lake.

The maths is daunting and peculiarly imprecise. According to the January 2025 USGS report, "Measured and indicated lithium resources in the US... are 19 million tons." But, going by just the three finds mentioned, the US has 43-57 mmt (1 American ton = 0.91 metric tonne). Which figure is correct? Meanwhile, the China Geological Survey estimates 44 mmt of lithium in the country across Sichuan, Qinghai, Jiangxi, and the Xinjiang Uygur and Inner Mongolia autonomous regions.

The global demand for lithium is forecast to reach 2.5-3.1 mmt by 2030. Climate projection by the Paris-based International Energy Agency has it that lithium supply will have to power 230 million electric vehicles by 2030. According to the USGS report, "Lithium resources have increased substantially worldwide and total about 115 million tons".