Heatwaves and Rains Are Cooking Up India's Food Inflation

A new analysis links India's rising food inflation to climate shocks that have battered tomato, onion and potato crops. The research shows how heatwaves and erratic rainfall cut production and pushed up prices. Tomato prices in Delhi soared from ₹18 to ₹67 per kg in July 2023 after rains destroyed crops in Himachal and Karnataka. With food making up nearly half of the CPI, recurring weather shocks are turning kitchen staples into drivers of inflation

- SV KRISHNA CHAITANYA @Chennai

EXTREME weather is reshaping India's food inflation, with tomatoes, onions, and potatoes (TOP) emerging as the most vulnerable crops.

A new analysis by Climate Trends, a Delhi-based organisation, has connected the dots between climate change, crop losses and rising food prices.

The study shows how extreme heatwaves and erratic rainfall have severely impacted TOP production over the past five years, pushing up prices of these staples and driving food inflation to alarming levels.

Drawing on Reserve Bank of India studies, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) analysis and official datasets, the research highlights how weather shocks are becoming a recurring driver of inflation.

A RBI study shows rainfall changes raise vegetable inflation by about 1.24 percentage points, while temperature changes increase it by around 1.30 points.

These short-duration, perishable crops are highly sensitive to sudden climate shocks, and their concentrated production in a few states makes them especially prone to volatility.

Food inflation in India, which had eased after 2014 due to improved supply, spiked in 2019-20 as unseasonal rains damaged kharif onions in Maharashtra, Karnataka and MP, and potato crops in UP and West Bengal.

The trend continued during the pandemic, moderated briefly in 2021-22, and climbed again due to post-pandemic demand and the Russia-Ukraine war.

Erratic weather in 2023-24 further disrupted supply, driving inflation higher.

Consumer food price inflation reached 11.5% in July 2023 and 10.87% in October 2024.

Vegetable inflation rose to 37% in July 2023 and 42% in October 2024.

In 2023, heavy rains in Himachal Pradesh and Karnataka caused tomato production declines of 10.9 and 12.9%, respectively.

Prices at Azadpur Mandi jumped from ₹18 per kg in June to ₹67 in July.