Why Taiwan Should Matter to India

In contemplating an attack on Taiwan, China's leader would need to ensure there is no significant damage to the economy, nor large-scale social unrest and, above all, no resultant threat to the party's rule

- VIJAY GOKHALE

HAT the world is going through turbulent times is not in doubt. Rising geo-political risks have increased the cost to national security and development. As the post-World War II global order disintegrates, perhaps abetted by the Trump administration's policies, the chances of geo-political conflicts intensifying can no longer be ruled out. Some might be contained, but one in particular might harken to global war—the Taiwan Strait.

In 1950, India's first prime minister described the Taiwan Strait as a danger point. It represented the intersection of two major powers—a dominant United States and a newly established People's Republic of China. In the 2020s, the Taiwan Strait remains the most dangerous flashpoint. China and the US are in confrontation mode. It is not merely a contest for dominance. It is a clash of values, interests, and their respective self-perceptions of being a world leader. The fact that they also happen to be the world's largest economies makes the situation even more fraught with danger for the rest of the world. Will China take Taiwan by force at the cost of war with the United States is, thus, a valid question that must be debated among Indians, the more so since India will soon be the third-largest economy and has enduring interests in the Indo-Pacific.