UNDERSTANDING THE POPULATION AND DEMOGRAPHIC CHALLENGE

In 2023, India officially surpassed China as the world's most populous nation, with the United Nations reporting a population of 1,425,775,850, determined through a combination of census data and analyses of birth and death rates. Projections indicate that India's population may peak at 1.7 billion by 2064. Approximately 86,000 children are born daily in India, compared to 49,400 in China, which implemented a stringent one-child policy in the 1980s.

- KAVITA BAJELI-DATT & PREETHA NAIR

RECENT remarks by Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) chief Mohan Bhagwat and two chief ministers of Southern states have ignited a heated debate around crucial issues such as India’s demographic trends, declining fertility rates, and the pressing social and economic challenges the country faces.

Bhagwat’s suggestion that Indian couples should aim to have at least three children to bolster the nation’s population, sparked not only a political backlash, but also raised significant concerns about the perception of reducing women to mere ‘child bearers’ while overlooking their autonomy and reproductive rights.

He cited a scientific concept known as the Total fertility rate (TFR), advocating for families to have three children instead of the familiar slogan of ‘Hum Do Hamare Do’ (We two, ours two). This well-known phrase was integral to India’s national family planning programme and has been a staple in the public consciousness for decades. TFR represents the average number of children a woman is expected to bear throughout her reproductive years, serving as a key indicator of population growth and demographic health.

“Our country’s population policy, formulated in 1998 or 2002, clearly says that the total fertility rate should not be below 2.1. Now when we say 2.1, it is not feasible to have children in fraction. So when we say 2.1, this means it should be more, at least three. Population science says so,” Bhagwat said.

RSS’ earlier stance

Though population control policy has always been high on the BJP and RSS agenda, the RSS had adopted a measured approach to it. In his 2022 Vijayadashami speech, Bhagwat argued in favour of a comprehensive population control policy to tackle demographic challenges over the next 50 years. He also said that religion-based population balance is an important subject that can’t be ignored.