Q1 GDP forecasts range from 6-7%

Icra attributes lower growth to reduction in govt capex and fall in urban consumer demand

- BENN KOCHUVEEDAN

AHEAD of the official release of June quarter growth numbers next week, economists have offered differing forecasts, with rating agency Icra pegging the lowest at 6% and German brokerage Duestche Bank at the highest at 7% and Goldman Sachs seeing growth moderating to 6.6% on account of lower government capex and tepid consumption demand.

Thus far, the RBI's forecast of 7.1% is the highest but that is 20 bps lower than its June estimate. Icra cheif economist Aditi Nayar forecasting for the six quarter low growth of 6% attributed the same to the reduction in government capex and a fall in urban consumer demand. For the full fiscal year 2025, she expects the economy clipping at 6.8%, down from 8.2% in the previous fiscal. Official growth data for the June quarter will be released by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation on August 30. In the first quarter, the economy grew at 8.2%.

Contributing factors