Noise and Signal From Trump's Tariff Tantrums

In November 2024, Donald J. Trump's fans in Delhi conducted prayers and a 'havan' for his success in the US presidential elections. The prayers worked well for Trump, as he recorded a historic victory, but not quite so for his Indian groupies.

- SHANKKAR AIYAR Author of The Gated Republic, Aadhaar: A Biometric History of India's 12 Digit Revolution, and Accidental India ([e-mail])

Less than a year later, following diatribes and the imposition of tariffs, Trump is the subject of much disdain and memes on social media. It is not just Indians—more than half the adults in 19 of the 24 countries polled by Pew Research Center lack confidence in Trump's leadership of world affairs.

Context changes everything—definitions, expectations, and perceptions. This week, Trump's tortuous tariff tantrums reached a new milestone as he signed executive orders. Predictably, stock markets tanked across the world—the Nifty50 slid by 200 points, Hang Seng by 265 points, and Nikkei225 by 270 points. The US benchmark S&P 500, which has been hovering at record highs, dipped 101 points, and Nasdaq slid 472 points, leaving many tech barons poorer. Even Bitcoin tumbled to $115,000.

The tariffs rattled currency markets, fueling a rise in the stock markets' fear index, aka VIX.

In India, the tariff shock and Trump's tirade triggered a parade of rhetoric. There has been much lather about Trump describing India as a 'dead economy'. Opposition leaders are required to calibrate their commentary. Rahul Gandhi displayed astonishingly poor judgment as he agreed with Trump and failed to make the distinction between his critique of the regime and the nation. Trump is not exactly qualified to characterize the Indian economy. India is the fastest-growing economy. Its destiny will be defined by Indians. The Truth Social post must be read simply as an expression of his frustration at India's stance.