JOBS CONUNDRUM AND A CACOPHONY OF COUNTER-CLAIMS

THE potential of the India Story rests squarely on realising the demographic dividend.

- SHANKKAR AIYAR

India is currently home to a population of over 143 crore or over 1.4 billion. It is estimated that over 68 of the population, that is over 950 million, fall in the working age cohort of 15 to 64. Indeed, India contributes more people to the growth in global working-age population than any other country Demography is not destiny and realisation of the potential depends on fruitful employment for around 8 million who join the workforce every year.

The question is whether India is creating enough jobs. The answer depends on who is telling the story. American theorist W Edwards Deming once observed that someone without data is just another person with an opinion. Deming, who helped the US government design population-scale sampling for census and labour statistics, may not have countenanced that data can morph into opinion. Yet, India's fragmented data landscape has triggered a babel of competing opinions.

Last Friday, a transnational bank published a research report on the economy. The report observed that India would need to grow faster than 7 percent to create enough jobs for the young population and presented several 'motherhood and apple pie' suggestions. Unemployment and inflation represent the raw nerve of public mood and topped the list of concerns in the opinion polls fuelling rhetoric in #Elections2024. Unsurprisingly, the Congress unleashed a tweet fusillade as MP Jairam Ramesh leveraged the report, adding combustibles from the campaign.