Why modelling is crucial for a just climate transition in South Africa

THE business case for modelling in climate policy is simple. We can’t resolve problems we don't fully comprehend. Modelling helps turn uncertainty into informed choices — grounding climate ambition in sound, evidence-based decision-making. The energy, economic and social shifts required for a fair, low-carbon transition depend on clear evidence of what each pathway means for people, regions and industries.

- JURGEN OLIVIER

Focussed on achieving a just transition to a sustainable and low-carbon future, the Presidential Climate Commission’s work necessarily extends well beyond the climate system itself. The Commission's collaborative analytical foundation lies in linking climate science with various spatial, technical, and socioeconomic models that together capture the interactions between emissions, energy systems, economic structures, and social outcomes. This integration allows the PCC to situate climate ambition within the realities of employment, inequality, and development — ensuring that climate science informs decisions through an understanding of how mitigation pathways intersect with broader national priorities. This analytical approach depends on tools that translate complex systems into usable insights.

However, models are not crystal balls, they are structured ways of thinking about possible futures. They help decision-makers test assumptions, weigh trade-offs and anticipate risks. In a country where every policy choice must balance development, equity and decarbonisation, this evidence base approach is essential for building trust and coherence across government and society.

The Power and Limits of Models