South Africa’s policy uncertainty index plunges to record low as global and local tensions rise

THE latest Policy Uncertainty Index (PUI) from North West University (NWU) releases on Friday painted a grim picture of South Africa’s economic landscape, with the index plummeting to a record low in the quarter ending 78.7 for the first quarter of 2025, up from 75.1 in the preceding quarter.

- YOGASHEN PILLAY

This increase is marked by a higher level of uncertainty recorded since the PUI’s inception in early 2016, signalling disturbing implications for business confidence and investment environments in the country.

NWU Business School economist, Professor Raymond Parsons, noted that the persistent negative factors outweighing positive ones were indicative of broader economic turbulence.

“Persistent negative factors again outweighed positive ones. Thus, the net outcome of the PUI’s calibration of both positive and negative factors influencing the level of policy uncertainty was still high in the first quarter of 2025,” he said.

“Externally, the global economic outlook has been largely shaped by emerging tariff wars and heightened geopolitical tensions now being planned.”