South Africa's electricity market: Key developments in Q4 2025

THE South African electricity sector has been exceptionally active during the final quarter of 2025. On 27 November, the National Energy Regulator of South Africa (Nersa) approved the Market Operator Licence submitted by the National Transmission Company of South Africa (NTCSA).

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ESKOM's own performance continues to improve under the leadership of Chairman Mteto Nyati, says the author. by Sreenshot

This approval is a key step toward the establishment of a competitive electricity market and marks a shift from planning to implementation.

Nersa has also approved the creation of the Electricity Market Advisory Forum (EMAF), a body tasked with guiding the rollout of the competitive market framework. EMAF will advise the regulator on the finalisation and implementation of the Market Rules and the Market Code. Its formation signals the beginning of structured oversight for market design, something long overdue.

Earlier in the month Nersa approved the Grid Capacity Allocation Rules (GCAR), which aim to ensure fair, transparent and nondiscriminatory access to the national grid. The rules are intended to improve planning, reduce uncertainty, accelerate project development and increase investor confidence. GCAR supports faster access to grid capacity for bankable generation projects and is a direct response to the growing backlog and the need for predictable queue management.

Clarity on grid access and clarity on the shape of the future electricity market are two of the most pressing issues in the sector. Grid access has become particularly important as renewable energy generation and storage continue to grow in a distributed manner across the country.

On the generation side, Eskom estimates that rooftop solar installations have grown by 218 percent in three years, increasing from 2.3 GW in October 2022 to 7.4 GW currently.