Eskom’s challenges: Balancing electricity supply and demand in South Africa

THE latest Medium-Term System Adequacy Outlook (MTSAO) presents a complex view of South Africa's electricity landscape between 2026 and 2030. Compiled by the System Operator in accordance with the South African Grid Code, the report evaluates whether the power system will have sufficient resources to meet demand over the next five years.

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UNDER the moderate demand scenario, national electricity demand is projected to grow at 1.4% per year, supported by GDP growth of 2.7%, says the author. I SUPPLIED

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Its findings reveal progress, but also serious risks that could undermine recent gains.

Under the moderate demand scenario, national electricity demand is projected to grow at 1.4% per year, supported by GDP growth of 2.7%. Total energy requirements are expected to increase from 243 TWh in 2024 to about 264 TWh by 2030. These projections are modelled against assumptions for plant performance, new generation capacity, and the retirement of ageing stations.

While the system remains technically adequate under most scenarios, the outlook becomes critical from 2029 onwards. Eskom is scheduled to retire 8.4 GW of coal-fired capacity by March 2030, coinciding with the expiry of the Cahora Bassa import contract from Mozambique, with a capacity of 1.15 GW. This will create the first significant “baseload cliff” in the national system, a 9.5 GW drop in firm capacity that must be replaced or risk new supply shortages.

To address this gap, the outlook includes the addition of 6 GW of combined-cycle gas turbine (CCGT) capacity by 2030. However, these gas projects are at high risk of delay. If CCGT construction slips beyond the study period, the System Operator anticipates unserved energy exceeding 4 TWh in 2030 and open-cycle gas turbine (OCGT) utilisation soaring to 45%, far above the acceptable 6% threshold.

At the same time, renewable integration continues to accelerate. Solar PV installations are expanding through private investment and Independent Power Producer (IPP) programmes. Total renewable capacity from Eskom, the Renewable Energy Independent Power Producer Programme (REIPPP), and private sector projects could exceed 30 GW by 2030, depending on commissioning timelines.