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facing Oh, baby! London's the mother of all problems

The London Standard

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February 13, 2025

We're having fewer and fewer children. Why, and what does it mean for our city?

- KATE WILLS

facing Oh, baby! London's the mother of all problems

According to former Tory MP Miriam Cates, it's "the one overarching threat to British conservatism and to the whole of Western society".

What is this menace on the horizon? The rise of AI? Rightwing extremism? Climate change? No, the fact that women in the UK - and especially London - are having fewer babies.

It's been called "the birth dearth" and the reasons for it are manifold, from short-term factors including unaffordable nursery fees to more existential worries, such as fears about the state of the world. Although falling birth rates are a problem across the UK and in many other countries - London's has plunged dramatically.

The average woman in London now has 1.35 children, down from 1.74 in 2013. The national average is 1.44.

A baby shortage in the capital could markedly change the landscape of the city, and not just because you'd notice fewer Yoyo buggies on the streets and fewer little people running amok in your local pub. Maternity wards and schools will close and we could see even more care homes open in their place to cater for the city's ageing population.

The long-term implications for public services are even more worrying. Society functions like a pyramid scheme, with the youngest members supporting the old. If the bottom of the pyramid falls away it would put a huge strain on the health service, the benefits system and the state pension. In fact, many experts believe that unless we solve this "baby-geddon", life in the city as we know it could collapse.

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