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Mid-year outlook 2025: Steady but slow growth
The Island
|July 18, 2025
First Capital Research
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Rate Cut Expected in 3Q2025: First Capital Research (FCR) anticipates a 25bps reduction by the Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) to counter slow economic growth and align inflation with the 5% target. This is supported by:
Improved market liquidity (LKR 150Bn) and reserve strengthening (USD 7.0Bn forecasted), aided by multilateral inflows.
- Yield curve adjustments: 1Yr yields revised down by 100bps, while 5Yr and 10Yr yields lowered by 50bps. With rates near revised lower bounds, further downside is limited.
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