Israel-Iran conflict: The outcome depends on US

After a year-long shadow war, Israel directly bombarded Iran on Friday, June 13, hitting key nuclear and military sites and assassinating top figures. Iran, in turn, launched drones and ballistic missiles at Israel. Israeli strikes have allegedly killed 224 people so far, according to Iran's Health Ministry on June 15, 2025, while Iran's attacks have killed 24 people in Israel, including civilians, according to the BBC on June 16. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu remains steadfast in continuing strikes on Iran for "as many days as it takes" to degrade Iran's nuclear programme and devastate its military. Iran's leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, threatened "severe punishment" and claimed residential areas had been targeted. More bloodshed seems inevitable, but the outcome of the war, which is at a critical juncture, remains bleak.

- BY RAMISA ROB

On June 16, one Israeli source told CNN, "The end will be diplomatic, not military," adding that the Israeli hope is now that its ongoing military action "weakens Iran's negotiating hand" in any future nuclear talks. US President Donald Trump has openly said he intends to use the war that Israel started to bring Iran to the negotiating table. When asked by reporters at Axios whether Israel's attack jeopardises nuclear diplomacy talks between the US and Iran, Trump said, "I don't think so. Maybe the opposite. Maybe now they will negotiate seriously." He stated that he had given Iran 60 days, to which he claims Iran did not cooperate. Trump also mentioned that Israel had used "great American equipment" during the attacks.

On the other hand, Prime Minister Netanyahu said on June 15, "I leave the US position to the US. What are they going to do now? I leave it to President Trump. He made clear that Iran must not have a nuclear weapon."

Netanyahu's intentions are clear—it is well documented that he has wanted to drag the US into a war with Iran under every US administration he has encountered in his career, even if it comes at the cost of Israeli civilian lives. Now, Netanyahu's success in his aim—as he puts it himself—as well as Iran's responses, depend heavily on Trump's next steps. It is worth noting that Trump has demonstrated miscalculations regarding the Russia-Ukraine war, by approaching Russian President Vladimir Putin directly, which did not lead to the "peace" that Trump had claimed it would. Still, it is plausible that the Israeli attacks could very well weaken Iran and bring it to the negotiating table for the US, as Trump would have it. But that logic of using Israel's war on Iran to "negotiate" with Iran contradicts itself, as Israel does not want successful diplomacy between the US and Iran. In other words, Trump's tactics could also backfire significantly.