Who will win the drivers' championship - and when?

With just five races to go, the three-way battle for the F1 title could go all the way down to Abu Dhabi on 7 December

- KIERAN JACKSON

The battle for the 2025 F1 drivers’ title is heating up and with five rounds remaining this season, it’s now a three-horse race.

Oscar Piastri's lead has been whittled down in recent weeks and his advantage over McLaren teammate Lando Norris is now just 14 points, having gone three races without a podium finish.

Yet storming up behind both papaya drivers is Red Bull's Max Verstappen, chasing a fifth consecutive championship. The Dutchman, from a deficit of 104 points in August, is now just 40 off Piastri with 141 points still to play for.

Verstappen has won three of the last four races, while McLaren last won a grand prix in Zandvoort in August. Momentum has shifted in Red Bull's favour, with plenty of pundits now backing Verstappen to complete an unprecedented comeback. Despite Verstappen's form, McLaren look resolutely set to continue their policy of not making one of their drivers the clear No 1.

But where could the title be won or lost? The Independent evaluates each of the next five races, who it favours and the permutations at play as the 2025 season reaches its finale.

Mexico City Grand Prix (24-26 October)

Verstappen is the favourite here. Not only does he have a formidable record at the Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez - he has won the race five times - but the 1.2km start-finish straight favours a Red Bull car which has unlocked speed in a straight line in recent races.

Verstappen's dominance in Monza last month, with that historically long straight, highlights the RB21's improvement, with a new floor providing significantly more downforce and allowing the engineers to unlock more performance, with various setup options catered to the Dutchman's aggressive, front-limited style of driving.