Who is likely to win or lose) in the Runcorn by-election? SS SEY

The political atmosphere is hotting up in the Runcorn and Helsby by-election where the current MP Mike Amesbury has declared he will step aside following his conviction for assault.

- SEAN O'GRADY

Labour has selected a new candidate, Karen Shore, a local teacher and councillor.

Adding to the mild excitement, Tory peer and amateur psephologist Michael Ashcroft commissioned an opinion poll in the constituency and the result suggested Reform UK would take the seat. Bookies also put Nigel Farage’s party marginally ahead. There is still plenty of time until polling day, and much can change, although a punch-up on Main Street in Frodsham can hopefully be ruled out.

When will the Runcorn and Helsby by-election be held?

Amesbury, who has been sitting as an independent since losing the Labour whip in October, has yet to formally quit the Commons; it requires him to go through an arcane procedure in which he must apply for the ancient post of Crown Steward and Bailiff of the Manor of Northstead – a sinecure that is technically an office of profit under the crown, thus disqualifying the holder from membership of the Commons. After that, the convention is that the member’s former party will move a motion in parliament for a writ to be issued by the speaker for a byelection.

This gives Labour the luxury of timing the by-election when it best suits them; given they will have a scrap on their hands and could certainly lose, they might try to leave it to coincide with the local elections on 1 May when the likely Tory rout in English county councils would partially obscure the humiliating loss of a safe Labour seat.