Where does football go after Guardiola's ideology fades?

After 15 years of dominance, the Catalan's ideas of pressing and possession that gripped the game have now unravelled. Is this an 'end of history' moment

- By Miguel Delaney

On Premier League training grounds right now, there's a complaint that more and more players are expressing. The game is no longer primarily about finesse, speed or even transitions, as was the case as recently as 2022-23.

On Premier League training grounds right now, there's a complaint that more and more players are expressing. The game is no longer primarily about finesse, speed or even transitions, as was the case as recently as 2022-23. It's about “duels, duels and duels”, as a high-profile defender privately grumbled. That is one of a few reasons that long throws per game have doubled from 1.52 last season to 3.03 now, and from just 0.89 in 2020-21. The method forces more duels in the box, which might bring ricochets, corners or even goals.

One of the best illustrations is one of the most prominent individual rivalries. Erling Haaland and Gabriel love to go at it, in the type of striker vs centre-back battle that Arsene Wenger lamented was disappearing in 2014. One Arsenal figure described Haaland as “almost the ideal long-ball player” because of his physical prowess.

So much for Pep Guardiola bending the Norwegian to his tactical will. Haaland has instead been one of many forces that have ensured Guardiola himself has compromised his own beliefs in a way that would have been unimaginable in 2009. For that last 1-1 draw against Arsenal, he essentially opted for Jose Mourinho's Internazionale setup.

And this is where we might well have gone past a tactical “end of history” moment, to create a new uncertainty about the game's future as it's played. In the same way that Francis Fukuyama notoriously declared the fall of the Berlin Wall as the final victory of liberal democracy, Guardiola's rise with Barcelona supposedly signalled Total Football's total conquest forever. The reinterpreted “positional game” changed everything.