War on the poor will backfire badly among Labour MPs

The proportion of children in poverty rose in the last full year of the Conservative government, according to the latest figures published yesterday morning.

- JOHN RENTOUL

For many Labour MPs, one of the core tests of their government will be getting that figure – 31 per cent, representing 4.5 million children – down.

Instead, they read the dry words of their government’s own impact assessment on Wednesday: “Using this model, we estimate there will be an additional 250,000 people (including 50,000 children) in relative poverty after housing costs in 202930 as a result of modelled changes to social security, compared to the baseline projections.”

No wonder Clive Lewis, the Labour MP for Norwich South, hesitated for longer than was comfortable when asked if his government, not yet nine months old, had been a disappointment.

More worryingly for the Labour leadership, new MPs elected last year are starting to go public with their opposition. Connor Naismith, the MP for Crewe and Nantwich, said: “I did not come into politics to inflict this on the most vulnerable people in our society, and I cannot vote for changes which will have this impact.”

Many more Labour MPs have expressed their dismay privately, with estimates ranging from 30 to 80 for the number who are prepared to vote against the government.

The phrase “balancing the books on the back of the poorest” has resonated. It was applied first to the cut in foreign aid but now it is applied to those in poverty in the UK. Versions of it made front-page headlines yesterday in The Mirror