Trump's tariffs hokey-cokey set to muck up growth spurt

The UK economy has done something we’ve not seen very much of in recent times: it sprang a surprise on the upside. A big one.

- JAMES MOORE

According to new figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS), UK plc grew by a balmy 0.5 per cent in February. The Reuters poll of City economists had predicted growth of just 0.1 per cent.

Even with the usual caveats – that this is just the first estimate, monthly figures are volatile, and the ONS hasn’t covered itself in glory of late – there is no denying that this is a very good number indeed, and a ray of sunshine breaking through the perma-clouds hanging over chancellor Rachel Reeves’s office.

It compares with a fat zero in January – itself revised up from minus 0.1 per cent – with every sector contributing something. But the big noise was made by the makers: production output grew by 1.5 per cent, reversing a fall of 0.5 per cent in January, which dragged down the economy in that month.

Nobody likes a party-pooper, but facts are facts, and the uncomfortable fact about February’s numbers is that they line up with a global phenomenon: manufacturers around the world moved into high gear, with the intention of sending as much product across the Atlantic as they could to beat Trump’s tariffs. The boost the British economy received from an estimated £500m jump in exports to the US is inevitably going to unwind.