Top pollsters say Farage's Reform challenge is real

Reform’s popularity surge in the polls is legitimate and could be sustained until the general election, polling guru professor Sir John Curtice has told The Independent.

- DAVID MADDOX

Prof Curtice argued that while the problems for the Tories persist, the notable trend has been a historic collapse in Labour support after just seven months in power. For the Conservatives, questions are being asked about Kemi Badenoch’s future as leader, but a similar spotlight is being shone on chancellor Rachel Reeves with economic woes being blamed for Labour’s unpopularity.

Prof Curtice’s assessment is backed up by two other leading UK polling experts Lord Robert Hayward and Luke Tryl of More in Common. Their opinion comes after a week where several polls put Nigel Farage’s Reform UK either in top spot or equal first.

This included Techne UK’s weekly tracker for The Independent putting Labour and Reform equal top with 25 per cent and the Tories two points behind on 23 per cent. That result reflected the average in the poll of polls at the end of the week. On the same day, FindOutNow put Reform top with 29 per cent, 11 points ahead of the Tories on 18 per cent in third and four ahead of Labour on 25 per cent.

Prof Curtice said: “There is no reason to believe Reform’s vote is being significantly overstated.” Both he and former Tory MP Lord Hayward pointed to council by-election results which saw Reform win three of the six seats contested – two from Labour and one from the Tories.