These tariffs aren't meant to separate good and bad guys

Even before Donald Trump had finished reading out his tariff scorecard in the White House Rose Garden, the viewers who included government officials all over the world were trying to figure out the rationale. And, as with scores on the Eurovision Song Contest, to which this live show bore some resemblance, there was much reading of political runes.

- MARY DEJEVSKY

The omission of Russia had to mean that the US president was still trying to curry favour with President Vladimir Putin, even though their early and long dialogues had apparently turned sour. The arrival of a senior Russian envoy, Kirill Dmitriev, in Washington was thought to be another reason why Trump had decided to give Russia a free pass.

Meanwhile, there was quiet satisfaction in the British camp that the UK was to be subject only to the base 10 per cent tariff, while the EU would be subject to 20 per cent. On the one hand, this had to be a vindication of Brexit, as well as a reflection of the Trumpists’ hatred of Brussels, and on the other, a tangible result of all the hard work put in by Sir Keir Starmer in presenting the UK’s case for minimal tariffs, if any.

However, if there was political significance to be divined in terms of rewards and punishments (or inducements and deterrents), some glaring inconsistencies rapidly became clear. If Trump had wanted to send friendly signals to Russia, how come North Korea, Belarus and Cuba were also exempt from tariffs? North Korea – well, perhaps Trump was preparing to reignite his first-term friendship with Kim Jong-un, but Cuba – where the first-term Trump had reversed Barack Obama’s rapprochement? And Belarus – really?

There were other instances of some mighty strange political signals being sent, if that was the intention. Why, for instance, impose the 10 per cent base rate tariff on Iran, while slamming a 17 per cent rate on Israel, Washington’s longstanding ally and Iran’s mortal enemy? Were we looking at a map of Trump’s maverick diplomatic intentions for the coming months, or was politics, or at least politics as commonly understood, not what was going on?